City logistics is poised for major growth. Over the next decade, the city logistics market in the Netherlands is expected to grow from roughly €10–12 billion to €20–25 billion, with significantly higher-value-added services. This is no longer a niche play, but a full-fledged market with its own dynamics.
And in the debate about zero-emission zones, delivery windows, and local regulations, one thing is often overlooked: the real power in the value chain sits with the receiving customer. Not the government, but retailers, HoReCA, construction companies, healthcare institutions, and consumers drive decisions on service, speed, reliability, cost, and sustainability. They are reshaping the value chain.
Low Impact
Cities do, of course, shape the operating environment. In Amsterdam, average traffic speeds have already dropped below 23 km/h. Historic city centers are being closed to heavy and polluting trucks. Street design, closures, construction, roadwork, and car-free policies make logistics more complex and more expensive. And yet cities still need to be supplied. Without logistics, city centers stop functioning. The question is not if cities will be served, but how; with low-impact.
Today, much of the city’s deliveries are still handled through own-account transport or dedicated transport networks. That distribution model is not sustainable. It is running into hard limits: driver shortages, missed windows, low utilization, and rising costs. This creates space for professional transport companies that understand cities, use data, share capacity, and operate from city hubs where first- and last-mile connections are seamless. That is where value is created: first-mile, last-mile, consolidation, returns, installation, service, waste, and circular flows.
Customers Demand More
Different market segments in city logistics require different offerings. Retail wants consolidation, construction wants hassle-free coordination, foodservice wants time-slot deliveries, healthcare wants temperature assurance, and consumers want delivery choice across home, pickup points, and returns. On top of that, new logistics demands arise from dark kitchens delivering to local HoReCa and offices, cargobike-based field service, prefab construction logistics to support faster construction, and the emerging circular flows of furniture, electronics, and building materials. These are profitable logistics activities, but cannot be served with classical transport services.
Digitization and collaboration are prerequisites. Without data-sharing, routing, system integration, and track-and-trace, consolidation is unattainable. Without collaboration between logistics companies, hubs, real estate, energy infrastructure, and customers, scale will not materialize.
Local Heroes
The winners in city logistics will not necessarily be the biggest transport companies, but rather those that can operate flexibly within cities: modular, digital, interoperable, and able to connect supply chains. The strategic question for senior leaders in the transport sector is simple: continue optimizing within a shrinking model, or help build a blue-ocean market that will double in value and multiply in complexity? The choice presents itself now. Start that conversation today with your colleagues and customers.
Walther Ploos van Amstel