A new study published in the European Transport Research Review (Fernando et al., 2026) offers a comparative look at how shopping-related travel behavior has changed across France, Germany, Norway, and Switzerland from the early 2000s to the 2020s. For those working in city logistics, the findings are both reassuring and challenging.
Fewer Trips, but Not Simpler Logistics
The headline finding is straightforward: people are making fewer physical shopping trips. In France, Germany, and Norway, shopping trip rates have declined significantly over the study period, driven by three overlapping forces — the rise of e-commerce, the suburbanization of retail, and rising car ownership among older adults. Switzerland is the notable exception, where shopping trip rates remain stable, possibly aided by the country’s dense rail network and the unique role of railway stations as retail hubs.
For city logistics, fewer trips do not mean less demand. Quite the opposite: the shift from consumer trips to parcel deliveries redistributes the logistics burden from shoppers to vans and cargo bikes. The study does not model delivery volumes directly, but the implication is clear: as physical shopping trips decline, last-mile delivery grows to fill the gap.
The Car Is Not the Whole Story
One of the most policy-relevant findings challenges a common assumption: shopping trips are not inherently more car-dependent than other trip types. In most countries, driving is more common for non-shopping trips than for shopping trips. Walking for shopping is substantial (reaching up to 50% in urban areas), and public transport is consistently underused for shopping compared with other purposes.
This matters for urban logistics planning. If a significant share of shopping already happens on foot, policies that improve walkability and consolidate retail closer to residential areas can reduce demand for motorized supply chains at both ends: fewer delivery vans and fewer consumer car trips.
Here are some notable data points from the Fernando et al. (2026) study:
Shopping trip rates
- Shopping accounts for roughly 0.5 to 1 trips per person per day across the four countries
- Shopping trip rates declined faster than non-shopping trips in France, Germany, and Norway
- In France, shopping trips among households with children fell by over 45% between 2008 and 2019
Urban vs. rural
- Urban residents make 10–40% more shopping trips per day than rural residents, depending on the country
- Rural shopping trips are 0.5 to 5 km longer than urban ones, depending on the country
- In Switzerland, urban residents make 40% more shopping trips than rural residents (2021)
Gender
- In Switzerland in 2005, women made 67% more shopping trips per day than men — in rural areas nearly twice as many
- By 2021, that Swiss gender gap had fallen to just 14%
- Norway reached effective gender parity in shopping trip rates as early as 2017
Age and car use
- In Germany, shopping trip distances for adults over 75 increased by as much as 47% since the early 2000s
- Car ownership in households with people over 75 increased by 27–62% across the four countries over the study period
Mode choice
- Walking shares for shopping reach up to 50% in cities
- Public transport is consistently less used for shopping than for other trip purposes across all four countries
- In Germany, cycling shares for shopping trips have consistently been higher than for non-shopping trips
E-commerce
- In 2006, 63% of Norwegian internet users bought goods online, versus 49% in Germany and 22% in France
- By 2021, online purchasing had reached 92% in Norway, 83% in Switzerland, and 76% in both Germany and France
Age and Inequality Are Shaping Demand
Two demographic trends deserve attention. Older adults are shopping more by car, traveling farther, and reducing their share of walking. This pattern will intensify as populations age across Europe. Meanwhile, higher-income groups are increasingly substituting physical shopping with online orders, shifting logistics demand toward home delivery in wealthier neighborhoods.
Shopping trip rates have declined in France, Germany, and Norway — likely driven by e-commerce growth and suburban retail expansion — while Switzerland remains stable. Contrary to popular assumption, shopping is not inherently more car-dependent than other trip types, particularly in urban areas, and active modes show real potential. However, older adults are increasingly car-reliant, requiring targeted policy responses even where overall trends look positive.
The gender gap in shopping travel has narrowed, reflecting gradual progress in household labor equity, though post-pandemic employment data suggest this progress may be stalling. Age and income are stronger predictors of shopping behavior than household type. Longer-term cohort research is needed to distinguish lasting generational shifts from life-stage effects.
The Research Agenda
The study calls for better harmonization of national travel surveys and longitudinal research to distinguish generational shifts from life-stage effects. For city logistics researchers, the invitation is equally clear: connect demand-side travel behavior data with supply-side delivery data. Understanding who shops, how, and from where is the essential foundation for designing smarter, cleaner, and fairer urban supply chains.
Walther Ploos van Amstel.