Urban freight transport is increasingly at the center of policy and research debates, driven by rising e-commerce demand, urban densification, and the introduction of zero-emission zones across European cities. A recent analysis by the Dutch Kennisinstituut voor Mobiliteitsbeleid (KiM) provides a systematic and evidence-based perspective on one of the most discussed solutions: urban consolidation centers, or city hubs.
The growing pressure on city logistics
City logistics plays a critical role in urban economies, supporting retail, horeca, construction, services, and waste collection. At the same time, it generates significant negative externalities, including CO₂ emissions, air pollution, congestion, noise, and pressure on scarce urban space.
Although urban freight represents a relatively small share of total freight volumes, its impact on urban mobility is disproportionate. Vans and trucks account for a substantial share of vehicle kilometers in cities, and this demand is expected to grow by approximately 19% by 2035 under current trends. This growth reinforces the urgency of redesigning urban logistics systems.
City hubs: concept and expectations
City hubs (also referred to as urban consolidation centers) are facilities located at or near urban areas where goods are transshipped and consolidated before final delivery. In theory, hubs enable higher load factors, fewer vehicle movements, and a shift to smaller, zero-emission vehicles such as light electric freight vehicles (LEFVs).
This has positioned hubs as a promising instrument in achieving more sustainable last-mile logistics, particularly in the context of zero-emission zones.
Context dependency of impacts
However, the KiM analysis highlights a crucial insight: the effectiveness of city hubs is highly context-dependent. Their impact on emissions, efficiency, and urban livability is not inherently positive but depends on the overall design of the logistics system.
Key determining factors include:
- The location of the hub relative to demand
- The type and volume of goods
- The choice of vehicles for last-mile delivery
- The degree of coordination and collaboration among logistics actors
In dense urban areas, particularly historic city centers, hubs combined with small electric vehicles can reduce emissions, noise, and spatial pressure. However, in less dense areas or when volumes are insufficient, hubs may introduce inefficiencies. Additional handling and transshipment can increase total vehicle kilometers, offsetting environmental gains.
Economic viability remains a barrier
A central challenge identified in the study is the limited business case for city hubs. Establishing and operating a hub requires significant investments in infrastructure, handling operations, and coordination. At the same time, the logistics sector operates on thin margins.
As a result, many hub initiatives struggle to achieve financial sustainability. Without sufficient and stable volumes, efficient routing cannot be realized, and operational costs remain high. Empirical evidence shows that many hub projects disappear once subsidies are withdrawn.
This raises fundamental questions about scalability and long-term viability.
Electrification versus system innovation
In parallel with the development of hubs, the logistics sector is rapidly electrifying its vehicle fleets. Electric vans and trucks offer a more direct pathway to emission reductions without requiring major structural changes in logistics networks.
The KiM study suggests that electrification alone may deliver substantial environmental benefits, potentially reducing the relative added value of hubs. In many cases, direct delivery with electric vehicles may be more efficient than introducing an additional transshipment layer.
The role of government
From a policy perspective, the study concludes that national governments are already actively engaged in shaping urban logistics through regulation (e.g., zero-emission zones), fiscal instruments, and facilitation of knowledge exchange.
Given the mixed and context-dependent effects of hubs, there is no clear justification for additional national-level intervention specifically aimed at promoting hubs or LEFVs. Instead, the responsibility for implementation lies primarily with local governments and market actors, who are better positioned to tailor solutions to specific urban contexts.
International evidence on city hubs shows mixed but context-specific outcomes. The Van Dorp case in Dutch cities demonstrates strong operational benefits for service logistics. By using urban hubs and light electric vehicles (LEFVs), technicians avoid congestion and parking issues and reportedly work up to four times faster. This model is effective for small, tool-based service activities, though its economic viability remains unclear.
In Antwerp, a company-operated hub improved logistics performance: fewer kilometers, lower emissions, and higher load factors. However, despite these societal benefits, the hub was not financially viable. Substantial increases in freight volume would be required to achieve both social and business profitability.
London microhub cases show significant environmental gains, including substantial reductions in CO₂ emissions and vehicle kilometers traveled. Yet, smaller vehicle capacity led to more trips in dense areas, sometimes increasing inner-city traffic and space use.
Finally, Italy’s restricted traffic zones illustrate how strong regulation can drive the adoption of alternative delivery modes such as cargo bikes.
Toward a systems approach
The overarching conclusion is that city logistics cannot be optimized through isolated interventions. City hubs are not a universal solution, but one of many instruments that may contribute under the right conditions.
Effective urban logistics requires a systems perspective that integrates vehicle technology, spatial planning, regulatory frameworks, and cross-supply-chain collaboration. For researchers and practitioners, this implies a shift away from single-solution thinking toward context-sensitive, system-level design of urban freight networks.
In that sense, the future of city logistics is not about choosing between hubs or vehicles, but about aligning the entire system to deliver economic efficiency alongside environmental and social performance.
Source: KiM