Meeting Europe’s 2030 zero-emission targets for heavy-duty vehicles requires urgent action. While OEMs face binding CO₂ targets, demand-side incentives remain limited, hindering the adoption of operators. Instruments like ETS2, CO₂-based road charges, and subsidies are essential. Hydrogen vehicles, crucial for long-haul, face early-stage market challenges and infrastructure gaps.
Infrastructure needs differ: urban fleets can use depot charging, but long-haul trucks and coaches require megawatt charging and public H₂ refueling. Key priorities now include accelerating high-power charging along corridors, streamlining permitting and grid upgrades, and implementing strong demand-side policies to match supply-side ambition and keep Europe’s transport sector globally competitive.
Technology Readiness Report
The European Commission published its HDV Market and Technology Readiness Report based on an analysis by Transport & Mobility Leuven, Ramboll, and the University of Antwerp. The shift to zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles is starting to gain some traction, but the transition is still in its early phase – and significant hurdles remain.
The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the market readiness of zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) and the necessary infrastructure to support their adoption by 2030. It responds to the EU’s ambitious revised CO₂ standards, which require lorries and coaches to cut emissions by 43% by 2030 and 90% by 2040.
City buses face a mandate to be 90% zero-emission by 2030 and fully zero-emission by 2035. These targets make the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2ICEs) critical.
BEV versus FCEV
BEVs are currently the most widely available and energy-efficient technology, although they are limited in range. FCEVs offer a more extended range and shorter refueling times, making them more suitable for long-haul applications, albeit with higher costs and lower energy efficiency due to the energy-intensive nature of hydrogen production. H2ICEs are emerging technologies best suited for very heavy or industrial operations.
As of 2024, there are 115 BEV models and 23 FCEV models on the market. Heavy trucks have 40 BEV and six FCEV models; medium trucks offer 16 BEV and one FCEV model. The bus segment is the most advanced, with 59 BEV and 15 FCEV models available. However, coaches lag significantly, with only three models announced by 2027.
Although the market share of zero-emission HDVs remains low, registrations are growing. BEVs accounted for 2.09% of lorry registrations and 14.84% of bus and coach registrations in 2024, far surpassing hydrogen vehicles. Medium lorries and urban buses show the highest uptake, at 5.4% and 40%, respectively. To meet the 2030 goals, one in three new lorries will need to be zero-emission, supported by a 15% efficiency gain in conventional vehicles. However, OEMs have yet to provide clear roadmaps and adoption by fleet operators is mostly driven by voluntary or client-imposed sustainability targets rather than regulation.
Infrastructure is a key enabler of the transition. The Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR) supports the development of electric charging and hydrogen refueling infrastructure. However, grid limitations and administrative delays hinder the deployment of high-power chargers. Long-haul BEVs and coaches will require publicly accessible high-output recharging stations, while urban and regional vehicles can mostly rely on depot charging. For hydrogen, 85-95% of users are expected to depend on public refueling stations, with a preference for 700 bar systems for long-distance operations.
ERS versus charging points: infrastructure remains a weak link
Electric Road Systems (ERS) are not expected to contribute significantly before 2030 due to their early stage of development and high infrastructure requirements. Stakeholders anticipate that 18,000 high-power charging points (90% above 150 kW) and 1,100 hydrogen refueling points (mostly 700 bar) will be needed by 2030. However, these estimates are based on assumptions and are subject to uncertainty, especially regarding future energy demands and vehicle mix.
The study’s scenario projects around 534,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) on European roads by 2030, including 426,000 lorries and 108,000 buses and coaches. Of these, 459,000 are expected to be BEVs and 74,000 hydrogen-powered vehicles. Meeting their energy needs will require 36.4 TWh of electricity and 14.5 TWh of hydrogen. Yet, AFIR infrastructure targets are estimated to cover only 50–80% of BEV demand and 50–65% of hydrogen demand, requiring additional investment beyond the TEN-T corridors.
Key barriers
Key barriers identified by stakeholders include high total cost of ownership (TCO), insufficient public charging infrastructure, grid capacity constraints, and uncertainty over hydrogen costs. While technological and economic advances are expected to reduce these barriers by 2030, some, such as grid limitations, remain significant. Vehicle OEMs are particularly concerned about recharging infrastructure, while operators emphasize the need for financial support and hydrogen pricing.
In conclusion, while BEVs are leading the transition, and infrastructure planning is underway, achieving the EU’s 2030 goals will require accelerated investment in both public infrastructure and grid upgrades, as well as regulatory clarity and sustained policy support, to overcome technological, economic, and operational challenges.
Walther Ploos van Amstel.