PostNL opened 2026 with a notable shift in its e-commerce operations: total parcel volume dropped 7.1% compared to the same quarter last year. Yet the company made this choice deliberately. So what’s going on?
Fewer parcels, but worth more
Revenue from the e-commerce segment came in at €451 million, down from €473 million in Q1 2025. Despite the decline in volume, the average price per parcel rose by 4.1%. This is no coincidence: PostNL is pursuing a volume-to-value strategy, shifting focus from the number of parcels to profitability per parcel. Sharp customer segmentation and differentiated propositions should ensure that lower volumes still deliver better margins, says CEO Pim Berendsen.
Two causes behind the volume decline
The 7.1% drop stems from two developments.
1. A weaker domestic market. Domestic parcel volumes fell 5.5%. A significant portion reflects lower consumer spending in the Netherlands, partly driven by broader economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weighing on consumer confidence. On top of that, PostNL lost a small share of its market — something the company itself considers expected and acceptable within its current strategic transition.
2. Less volume from Asian webshops. International volumes fell even further, by 13.2%, primarily due to declines in parcel flows from Asian e-commerce platforms, particularly those from China. Two factors are at play: market growth slowed, but PostNL also deliberately pursued tougher contract negotiations. Asian players accustomed to shipping large volumes at low rates are now facing a PostNL that demands more value per shipment. This approach costs volume in the short term, but fits squarely within the company’s strategic direction.
While e-commerce declined, the Platforms segment grew. Through brands like Spring and MyParcel, revenue rose to €185 million (+2.6%), driven by 9.6% volume growth in Europe. European e-commerce is picking up — though it only partially offsets the decline in Asian volumes.
A deliberate choice, but external pressure remains
CEO Pim Berendsen stresses that the volume decline is largely the result of a deliberate strategic shift, not a surprise. Still, he acknowledges the external environment is more challenging than hoped: higher fuel prices, weaker consumer confidence, and geopolitical uncertainty make the transition harder.
From 12 July 2026, PostNL will deliver mail as standard within two days, with faster delivery remaining available at a higher rate. Operational preparations are on track. For the long term, however, delivery within three working days and compensation for net costs are essential. PostNL is pressing for swift revision of the Postal Act and has initiated legal proceedings to recover costs and withdraw the current designation.
PostNL confirms its full-year 2026 outlook, targeting a normalized EBIT of €40-€70 million. The company views 2026 as a transition year on the road to its Breakthrough 2028 ambitions — fewer parcels today, more value tomorrow. PostNL provided no details on profit figures or cost developments in the trading update. I’m curious what shareholders will make of that.
Race to the bottom
I believe the parcel market is structurally broken by a race to the bottom. Webshops and platforms overwhelmingly opt for the cheapest delivery option — understandable from a cost perspective, but damaging for quality, sustainability, and working conditions.
The core problem is fierce competition in a saturated market: too much capacity, too little margin, and a relentless price war, with service, quality, and labor conditions as the first casualties. For PostNL specifically, it remains a race to the bottom in which the consumer has long since ceased to be the priority.
Dutch e-commerce companies and logistics providers are jointly exploring a shift away from always-as-fast-as-possible towards delivery at the most convenient moment. That was the conclusion of the Coalition of Change, a gathering of e-commerce executives organized by Thuiswinkel.org. Only 20–25% of orders are genuinely urgent. Giving consumers more control over day and time slots leads to smoother supply chain flows, better planning, and lower costs.
Webshops hold the key: put the consumer first, stop buying the cheapest delivery, and choose the best carrier. Because those who choose quality today will be playing in the European Champions League tomorrow.
Walther Ploos van Amstel
Also read: The parcel market is broken