The European Commission’s Prospective Study on the Future of the Postal Sector (2024) provides a detailed picture of how Europe’s delivery ecosystem is expected to evolve by 2040. Conducted by RPA Europe and RAND Europe, the study supports the preparation of a new EU Delivery Act, planned for 2026, and offers insight into how digitalisation, e-commerce, and sustainability will reshape postal logistics in the decades to come.
Across all scenarios, one trend is inevitable: letters are disappearing while parcels are booming. The study predicts that domestic letter volumes will fall by about 55 percent and international letters by up to 80 percent by 2040. Meanwhile, parcel volumes could double or even triple due to the growth of online retail and cross-border e-commerce. This structural shift challenges the Universal Service Obligation (USO) that guarantees affordable, nationwide delivery. Maintaining daily mail delivery is becoming increasingly costly and less relevant as consumer habits shift online.
Without reform, these pressures could make the USO financially unsustainable, threatening equal access to postal services, especially for vulnerable users in rural or low-income areas.
The study models five future scenarios.
- The New Normal (baseline) – a continuation of current trends: declining letter volumes, rising parcel demand, and gradual digitalisation. Employment stays roughly stable, though jobs shift from letter delivery to parcel logistics.
- Platforms Redefine Post – tech giants expand into delivery networks, using their data and infrastructure to dominate parcel logistics. Market concentration increases, but prices may fall due to efficiency and automation.
- Post-Carbon Discipline – Climate Policy Becomes the Main Driver. Consumers opt for greener but slower delivery; parcel growth stabilizes, emissions decline, and environmental standards tighten.
- Social Value Post – universal service providers reinvent themselves as local service hubs, focusing on social inclusion and public value by offering digital access points and community logistics.
- Poly-Crises Escalate – a “wild-card” scenario of multiple shocks, such as climate, energy, and geopolitical crises, that disrupt delivery networks, drive costs up, and reduce service quality.
Across all futures, several cross-cutting challenges appear. Rising unit costs make letter delivery less efficient. The financial burden of the USO grows as revenues fall. Competition between postal operators and e-commerce platforms becomes uneven, while new technologies create both opportunities and precarious working conditions. The rapid growth of parcel volumes also risks increasing emissions and congestion unless operations become more sustainable.
The study argues that Europe needs a flexible but harmonised postal policy. Member States should be allowed to tailor delivery frequency, service scope, and speed to local realities, while maintaining a minimum level of universal service across the EU.
Proposed measures include allowing non-daily letter delivery and offering more off-premise options, such as parcel lockers and additionally, creating temporary grid connections for flexible access to energy, strengthening consumer rights and complaints procedures—particularly for e-commerce buyers—supporting reskilling and green innovation, and clarifying what constitutes a postal operator to ensure a fair level playing field.
By 2040, the “New Normal” scenario suggests that employment levels may remain stable as job losses in mail are offset by parcel growth and automation. Domestic parcel prices could rise by 35 percent, while international parcel prices may decrease slightly due to increased competition. Reducing letter delivery frequency by 10 percent could lower unit costs by up to 6 percent and modestly reduce emissions.
The EU’s postal system—still employing 1.6 million people and generating 0.4 percent of EU business turnover—stands at a turning point. The following two decades will determine whether it becomes an efficient, green, data-driven delivery backbone or fragments under the weight of outdated regulation and uneven national reforms. As the Commission designs the EU Delivery Act, this foresight study offers both a warning and a roadmap: adapt the rules, modernise the network, and ensure that every citizen—digital or not—remains connected to Europe’s delivery future.
Source: EU