Heavy-duty road transport is one of the most persistent sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and reducing its climate impact is essential to meeting global decarbonisation targets. In their review in Nature, Zhang and colleagues evaluate the feasibility, economic viability, and emissions reduction potential of key clean pathways: chiefly battery electric trucks (BETs), fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs), and low-carbon liquid fuels, including biodiesel and synthetic fuels for heavy-duty vehicles across China, Europe, and the United States.
A key conclusion of the review is that battery electric trucks currently offer the most practical and scalable decarbonisation pathway in the near term. BETs can reduce life-cycle CO₂ emissions by 27–58% compared with conventional diesel trucks under real-world conditions. This potential holds across major markets and reflects both tailpipe emissions and upstream energy emissions.
Ongoing decarbonisation of electricity grids
Critical to this performance is the ongoing decarbonisation of electricity grids. As grid carbon intensity improves, the emissions advantage of BETs grows, making them increasingly competitive with diesel and other alternatives on a life-cycle basis. In markets with ambitious grid decarbonisation, BETs can meet most daily heavy-duty freight travel needs without imposing undue range limitations.
The review identifies technical feasibility barriers that remain, particularly regarding battery energy density and charging infrastructure. Yet emerging models, such as battery leasing or intermediate charging strategies, can mitigate these constraints and expand truck usability across a wider range of duty cycles. Increasing battery energy density could enable more than 70% of BETs to meet typical tractor-trailer range requirements without requiring en-route recharging.
Fuel cell electric trucks
In contrast, fuel cell electric trucks (FCETs) have potential for heavy-haul and long-range applications due to hydrogen’s high energy density. However, the review highlights that hydrogen’s carbon intensity and the current inefficiency of hydrogen production pose significant barriers. Unless hydrogen production becomes significantly cleaner and more cost-effective, FCETs will struggle to match the life-cycle benefits of BETs, particularly given that hydrogen’s use is 3–4 times less efficient than direct electricity use in batteries. Also hydrogen prices are very volatile.
Economically, BETs are projected to achieve total cost of ownership (TCO) parity with diesel trucks before 2030, assuming continued declines in battery costs, supportive policies, and grid decarbonisation. FCETs, by contrast, are not expected to reach cost parity until around 2040 due to the high costs of fuel cell components and hydrogen infrastructure.
One size does not fit all
The review underscores that one size does not fit all: fleet needs vary enormously by duty cycle, operational profile, and geography. Many long-haul applications still present challenges for BETs, while FCETs and low-carbon fuels may fill niche roles where batteries are less practical. However, the space for FCETs may shrink as BETs become cost-effective faster than previously anticipated. Unfortunately, the review did not look at the possibilities of Electric Road Systems (ERS).
In conclusion, the evidence suggests that a technology portfolio led by BETs, supported by targeted innovations in infrastructure and energy systems, offers the strongest path to deep decarbonisation of heavy-duty transport. Strategic policy support, continued research on energy intensity and lifecycle impacts, and deployment-oriented innovation will be crucial to realise these decarbonisation potentials at scale.
Also read: Europe’s ZE-Truck Crossroads: Why It Matters