Les Echos writes: “Amazon, Shein et les autres… Les livraisons de colis représentent déjà 20 % du trafic routier en Ile-de-France”. True or fake news?
A new research note from L’Institut Paris Region puts a striking number on a trend most of us feel intuitively: 315 million parcels were delivered in Île-de-France in 2025, the result of explosive growth in e-commerce platforms and the operational efficiency of a handful of global players. That’s up from 303 million the year before — and the figure represents far more than a last-mile delivery statistic. It’s a signal of deep structural change running through commercial circuits and territorial organization across the region.
What counts as a “small parcel”
The note defines a small parcel as a unit shipment between 0.2 and 30 kg, sitting between letter mail and palletized freight. Once prepared, these parcels move straight through highly automated sorting hubs without any storage step, with sorting chains capable of processing tens of thousands of units per hour. B2B, B2C, and C2C shipments represent roughly 35%, 55%, and 10% of French parcel traffic, respectively.
Measuring the immeasurable
One of the most useful contributions of this research is methodological honesty: there’s no clean, undisputed dataset on regional parcel volumes. The sector is marked by intense competition and limited data transparency. National regulator Arcep publishes country-level figures, but scaling these down by population share yields a wide range — between 294 and 360 million parcels regionally, out of 1,638 million nationally, in 2024. The 315-million estimate instead comes from anonymized tracking data, offering a sharper, geolocated view of where parcels actually go.
At the département level, Paris receives the most parcels overall — 61 million annually — while Essonne has the highest per-capita intensity at around 20 parcels per resident per year. Urban areas order more despite having more nearby retail options, and parcel volumes appear largely indifferent to income levels. Delivery patterns are also strikingly uneven across the week: Wednesday is the busiest day, Monday volumes drop by half compared to the rest of the week, and Sunday delivery remains exceptional.
The China factor
Perhaps the most newsworthy element is the rise of Chinese e-commerce platforms. Chinese-origin parcels now account for an estimated 12.5% of regional deliveries — about 40 million of the 315 million parcels distributed in 2025. Paris-Charles de Gaulle airport has become a critical node in this system: cargo volumes there rose from 170 million items in 2022 to 773 million in 2024, while the average unit price dropped from €11.30 to €6.40.
This growth has triggered policy responses. A new €2-per-parcel tax introduced in March had an immediate and massive effect, redirecting more than 90% of light freight flows outside national borders before re-importation — without significantly denting actual online purchases. It’s a vivid illustration of how easily these flows can be rerouted when regulation isn’t harmonized across borders, echoing the Italian case, where tariff barriers diverted a third of parcel traffic to Liège and Budapest airports before goods were trucked back in.
Two business models, one disruption
The note identifies two organizational extremes among major platforms. Amazon and Alibaba represent a “top-down” model built on dense warehouse networks integrated into customer-facing logistics, while newer entrants like Shein and Temu use a “bottom-up” model based on direct drop shipping from China by air, with no local warehousing and distribution outsourced to local carriers—particularly postal operators. The weak points of this second model are delivery times of 9 to 11 days and the cost of air freight, though low-value shipments have historically benefited from de minimis customs exemptions.
Both models are now converging toward more conventional infrastructure. Shein has invested in a 740,000 m² central warehouse in Poland, while Cainiao, Alibaba’s logistics arm, uses Liège as a major logistics base.
The bigger picture
Beyond the numbers, the note frames parcels as the instrument of a broader restructuring of commercial and productive circuits — one with major territorial consequences, from intensified urban freight flows to the decline of clothing retail, with relay points being marginalized in favor of automated lockers.
For city logistics practitioners, the message is clear: the small parcel is no longer just a last-mile problem. It’s a lens onto how entire commercial geographies are being rewritten. But: 20% of the urban traffic is parcels? Fake news! Maybe 1 tot 2% maximum. And it saves consumers’ car trips to shop…
Also read: Wake Up. The E-commerce Party Is Over