Electric cars and vans will be cheaper to make than fossil-fuel vehicles in every light vehicle segment across Europe from 2027 at the latest, according to a new BloombergNEF study commissioned by Transport & Environment (T&E). The research found that battery electric vehicles could reach 100% of new sales across the EU by 2035 if lawmakers introduce measures like tighter vehicle CO2 targets and strong support for charging infrastructure.
But the early build-up of EV production and sales will be crucial to drive down costs and generate consumer buy-in for further adoption in the future, BNEF found. Only stricter CO2 targets for vehicle-makers in the 2020s, including a new 2027 target, can ensure that T&E said. T&E called on the EU to tighten emissions targets in the 2020s and set 2035 as the end date for selling new polluting vehicles.
Julia Poliscanova, senior director for vehicles and e-mobility at T&E, said: “EVs will be a reality for all new buyers within six years. They will be cheaper than combustion engines for everyone, from the man with a van in Berlin to the family living in the Romanian countryside. Electric vehicles are not only better for the climate and Europe’s industrial leadership, but for the economy too.”
Light electric vans will be cheaper to make than diesel vans from 2025, and heavy electric vans from 2026, BNEF also finds. But today, e-vans account for just 2% of sales because of emissions standards that fail to stimulate manufacturers to invest in their supply. The study did not look a TCO, sales margins (lease prices), or subsidies, but only at the price to manufacture the vehicle.
T&E said EU lawmakers will need to set van-makers challenging CO2 targets, alongside dedicated e-van sales quotas, to increase investment and the number of electric models on the market.
Battery electric cars and vans could reach 100% of new sales by 2035, even in southern and eastern Europe, if lawmakers increase vehicle CO2 targets and ramp up other policies to stimulate the market such as a faster roll-out of charging points. If left to the market without strong additional policies, battery-electric cars will reach only an 85% market share, and e-vans just 83%, in the EU by 2035 (missing Europe’s goal to decarbonize by 2050).